Hive Prospect Decision Dossier

One decision. Source-backed evidence. A clear next move.

A concise executive brief for one biotech asset, development question, or capital-allocation decision. Designed to identify what matters, what remains unknown, and the cheapest credible way to learn more.

Pilot price$100

ScopeOne decision

Format3–5 pages

StandardSource-backed

01 · The decision

What should management do next?

State the decision in one sentence before reviewing the evidence. If the decision cannot be stated clearly, the analysis is not ready.

02 · What the evidence says

Evidence supporting the thesis

Verified human, translational, regulatory, competitive, or operational evidence that materially supports the decision.
Each material claim is tied to a source or explicitly labeled as inference.
Evidence strength matters more than volume.

03 · What argues against it

Evidence that could change the answer

Contradictory data, failed assumptions, competing mechanisms, execution risk, and rights uncertainty.
Reasons the apparent opportunity may be less attractive than it first appears.
No inconvenient evidence is buried.

04 · Critical unknowns

What we still do not know

BiologyWhat remains uncertain about mechanism, translation, or patient response?

ClinicalWhich endpoint, population, dose, or duration still controls the decision?

EconomicsWhich costs are decision-relevant and which are merely conventional?

Rights / controlWhat ownership, licensing, IP, or partner assumptions require verification?

05 · Cheapest credible next experiment

What is the smallest credible experiment that can change the decision?

Question answeredThe single uncertainty the experiment is designed to resolve

Minimum designPopulation · intervention · endpoint · duration · sample size logic

Cost-to-TruthExplicit estimate or UNKNOWN until sourced

Time-to-TruthExplicit estimate or UNKNOWN until sourced

06 · Alternative paths

Do not evaluate the preferred path in isolation.

Path	What it proves	Capital	Time	Principal risk
Preferred path	Highest-value next truth	TBD	TBD	TBD
Cheaper path	Partial but decision-useful evidence	TBD	TBD	TBD
Different path	Competing indication / geography / design	TBD	TBD	TBD
Stop	Preserves capital if the thesis no longer clears the gate	$0 incremental	Immediate	Opportunity cost

07 · Go / modify / kill

GOEvidence threshold that justifies additional capital.

MODIFYEvidence that supports the thesis but requires a different design, population, geography, or partner.

KILLPre-agreed evidence that should stop further spending.

08 · What I would do Monday morning

Three actions, in order.

Resolve the highest-value unknown. Name the owner, source, or experiment needed.
Price the cheapest credible path. Obtain the specific quote, site, vendor, or geography comparison that changes the decision.
Set the decision date. Decide in advance when management will go, modify, or kill.

The Hive Prospect standard

Facts are separated from inference. UNKNOWN stays UNKNOWN. Sources are visible. Prior spend is not treated as present value. A stopped trial is not proof of abandonment. A sponsor is not automatically the current owner. The brief exists to improve a decision, not to make the document longer.

If the work is useful, keep going. If it is not, don't.