Methodology
Cheap-to-Truth: spend on information, not ritual.
The cheapest study is not necessarily the best study. The goal is the least expensive credible experiment that can actually change a management decision.
01
Start with the decision
Define what management will do differently if the result is positive, negative, or ambiguous.
- No experiment without a decision gate.
02
Find the decision-changing uncertainty
Not every unknown deserves removal. Rank unknowns by how much resolving them can change capital allocation.
- Attack the highest-value uncertainty first.
03
Design backward
Choose population, endpoint, duration, geography, site mix, and procedures backward from the minimum credible information required.
- Remove activity that does not improve the decision.
04
Price the real path
Where practical, compare actual sites and vendors rather than relying on a single blended benchmark.
- Cost-to-Truth is a decision variable, not a vanity metric.
Hive Prospect rule