Capital discipline
Money already spent is not what an asset is worth today.
Sunk development cost can explain history. It does not determine present value.
01
Value is forward-looking
Present value depends on future evidence, rights, probability, time, capital needs, alternatives, and commercial opportunity.
- Prior spend may be informative but is not a valuation floor.
02
The next truth matters more
A cheap decisive experiment can be worth more than a large historical dossier if it resolves the uncertainty controlling the next investment.
- Price the next decision, not the past effort.
Hive Prospect rule