Diligence principle
A stopped trial is not automatically a failed drug.
Trials stop for many reasons. Biology is only one of them.
01
Execution can fail
Recruitment, site performance, supply, financing, strategy changes, and competitive developments can stop a trial without answering the biological question.
- Classify the stopping reason before classifying the asset.
02
The question may have changed
Standard of care, indication strategy, corporate priorities, or available capital can change while the underlying asset remains scientifically interesting.
- Historical context matters.
03
Failure can still be informative
A true biological failure can still reveal what not to pursue, which population was wrong, or which endpoint was uninformative.
- The next question is whether any credible rescue thesis remains.
Hive Prospect rule