Start with the decision
Write what management will do if the evidence is positive, negative or ambiguous.
Find the uncertainty that controls it
Not every unknown deserves removal. Prioritize the unknown whose resolution changes capital allocation.
Design backward
Build the smallest credible experiment that can resolve that uncertainty while preserving safety and evidentiary value.
Questions people actually ask
FAQ
Is Cost-to-Truth just cost cutting?
No. A cheaper experiment that cannot answer the decision is bad value.
Can the most expensive design have a lower Cost-to-Truth?
Yes, if it produces a credible decision much faster or avoids repeating an inconclusive study.
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